As big as the 2004 BJP upset, Indians chose to give Congress another and firmer chance to run the government. Just some initial observations:
* Everyone got it wrong. Predicting a hung and fractured verdict, India actually gave a firmer verdict for the UPA.
* Left were the major losers in West Bengal (they keep winning losing in Kerala but its a first in WB). Nobody can say the exact reasons but Nandigram-Singur obviously paid a major role. (Lesson to congress, seriously consider land rehabilitation and SEZ land acquisition problem. In some ways SEZ's due to economy are declining so not an immediate issue overall)
* BSP didnt live to its expectations and thats a shocker to me at least. Lalu lost big and there is a decline in regional parties (they are not completely out though).
* BJP, on itself, did better only in Gujarat & Karnatka. It was average or far below in other states. Modi who was portrayed as next to Advani couldnt win votes outside Gujarat. Overall, without allies, they dont even exist in many major states in India so not really a national party in some sense. Generalizations across India that Hindutva lost are not true if you look at Gujarat and Karnataka and also Hindutva was not a major issue.
* Congress won big overall. They to some extent acknowledge that NREGA, Farmer Loan waiver and social sector reforms. But now given they dont need many allies and especially the Left the urge to push economic reforms will increase. I think though that within Congress some form of Left will develop which will slow down reforms (for the good) but it might be faster than before. Lack of financial sector reforms protected India during this crisis (Kamal Nath acknowledges this) so hopefully they take this into account. Lets see how it plays out.
* Chidambaram has lost!. But sadly will come as minister again.
* Personally, Manmohan Singh shouldnt be the PM. Rahul Gandhi or Sonia or some other politican should be ideally the PM. Politicans should do their jobs and be in Political positions. But it wont be that case at least for the next year or two I think.
This might be a new twist historically in Indian politics, time will tell. Indian voters delivered a stunner and its fascinating to disceet what was the intention. It easy to generalize but in every state there are multiple different things working.
